Six factors shaping property prices in 2022

Here are some factors that might threaten to thwart the vertical price growth of properties. 

1. One key factor is that there’s a lot more stock on the market now. Buyers have more options. And, to be fair, last year was a horrible year for buyers. The sheer lack of stock for the most part, caused by lockdowns making sellers more cautious, forced a ferocious pool of buyers to fight it out over the relatively few properties available which drove prices for those properties higher. That was until November when we saw the number of properties for sale steeply increase by more than 21 per cent nationally.

2. The desperation of buyers is dissipating slightly. We know this because the “days on market” for properties have increased from an average of 20 days in March to 28 days in October. This likely reflects the beginning of a mismatch between what  buyers want to pay compared to what sellers are expecting to achieve for their properties. 

3. A federal election is on the horizon and some say that the six weeks between an election being announced and the actual election public creates uncertainty in the real estate market. Others say there’s no evidence of any material impact on the market in the lead up to an election, and that the only impact is the outcome of the election. We’ll see.

Here are some factors that will support a continued rise in Brisbane property prices. 

1. An interest rate increase appears to be off the cards for a while longer yet, but some restrictions to finance have been introduced recently. Regulators have started to step in to control credit growth and there may be more restrictions on the horizon. Yet, credit is still deliciously cheap. Just ask anyone who bought property in January 1990 (17.5 per cent, cough cough).

2. Question: If you could live anywhere, where would it be? It appears that during the pandemic, many people’s wishes were to get to South East Queensland. In fact, the annual net interstate migration for the sunshine state is at its highest level in almost 20 years. Freed from the constraints of an office commute, cashed up with high savings rates and able to access cheap finance, people and money flowed northwards. It’s my prediction that the northern migration will continue into 2022. Even with closed borders and extended lockdowns in 2021, we saw very high levels of movement of people from Sydney and Melbourne up to Brisbane. Open borders will enable people to move up there more easily. Add to this positivity off the back of employment growth and the Olympics, as well as tougher economic conditions in Melbourne particularly, and this part of Australia is looking  like paradise.  

3. Lack of supply in 2021 had a huge impact on prices nationally but we’ve not recorded a slowdown yet in pricing even with a lot more stock on the market. Growth in the most recent 3 months of available data (September to November) was still stronger at 3.8 per cent than growth in the previous three months at 2.3 percent, even with far more stock on the market. It may be that buyers are still in greater abundance than available houses for many months to come. 

Only time will tell, but if you’d like to discuss the value of our property in this market, I’m only a phone call away.

I hope you enjoy the read.

Matt Lancashire