Forecasting for 2022

They say forecasting is for fools, but I get asked often where I think the market is heading – including by The Australian this week – so here goes. 

Queensland property is worth over $75 billion, up from $50 billion last year. While the imminent rate hikes and further APRA intervention could rapidly slow price growth in Sydney and Melbourne, property pundits are pretty universal in saying that the Brisbane market is likely to defy the downturn. Even with APRA moving in early, dwelling prices could still rise by up to 14 per cent here according to SQM Research’s Boom and Bust report. 

“Brisbane is going to outperform next year as a result of continued strong interstate migration flows mostly coming from Victoria, into south-east Queensland,” SQM’s Louis Christopher said.

“Our leading indicators suggest that at this point in time, there’s no real slowdown occurring in the market, so it will be entering 2022 with a lot of momentum. Property prices are offering relative value compared to Sydney and Melbourne, which will encourage more people to move to south-east Queensland.”

Ascot, for example, has had a cracking year. Its enduring popularity with those wanting family homes with big flat yards has underpinned huge sale after huge sale. I expect the medians across the 4007 postcode to continue to increase. We already have several sales over $10m due to settle in the first quarter of 2022. Hamilton has done well too and tends to attract those seeking smaller lots and better views, thanks to the hills. 

Riverfront Teneriffe and Chandler are currently the city’s two most expensive suburbs, with respective medians of $2.75m and $2.68m. 

In the greater scheme of Brisbane’s luxury property market, freestanding houses in Ascot rank fifth in median prices, while Hamilton sits seventh behind New Farm with a median price $2.3m. 

But… such is the desire to buy into these suburbs – and thanks to cheap credit – an upward shift in interest rates will have a marked impact on new purchasers. Households in New Farm, for example, are particularly exposed to an increase as double income households currently contribute 39.1 percent of their income to mortgage repayments here. 

At Ray White New Farm, we haven’t had a month this year where we’ve sold less than $30million worth of property to excited new owners. It’s been rewarding all round. 

It is a privilege to work with families who have been living in a much loved family home for 20 or 30 years and see them well remunerated and happy with the decision to sell a home that has long been a part of the family.

Since Covid, many of us have realised there is no better place than home.

I hope you enjoy the read.

Matt Lancashire