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Conflicting property predictions

The strongest price growth since the late-1980s boom

It’s been a year for the books nationally with the housing boom lifting prices to just above 21 per cent by the end of this year.  But some real estate and economics pundits are predicting a plateau for property prices ahead. If you’re betting on the market going one way or the other – you’re doing yourself a disservice by not having that discussion with your agent. After all, they’re at the coal face – they’re talking to buyers; their finger is on the genuine pulse of the market. 

But ANZ have announced that they believe house price growth will peak this year. Why? Tighter credit, more listings, and decreased affordability (we’re the only country in the world – other than Switzerland – with such massive household debt; it totals 120 per cent of GDP). In 2023, ANZ see prices slowing – not dramatically – when higher fixed rates really start to bite buyers. Fixed mortgage rates are already rising. 

On the upside, ANZ is predicting Brisbane to hold its price growth trajectory better than other cities, with a forecast 9 per cent rise next year. But that’s a lot less impressive than the ~25 per cent price growth sellers enjoyed this year, but it’s growth nonetheless.

So what to do as a seller on the sideline?

We only know the market we’re in today, and it’s been a great market for sellers and an attractive time for buyers with credit costing nearly nothing. Sideline sellers (those who have been toying with the idea of making the most of this market) are probably asking themselves whether or not  listing their property in December or January is a good idea. 

Well, there’s a school of thought that pervades, that doesn’t ring true for me, that listing in December-January is a waste of time. I think it is a legacy from an era (pre-Covid, and pre digital property portals) when we might escape with the family overseas or interstate and detach from our regular weekend newspaper reading. Covid has thrown out the whole “property seasons” cycle, as far as I’m concerned. 

These days, we’re far less likely to be overseas and more likely to be enjoying down time perusing property portals and enjoying the Sunday paper at a more indulgent pace. If you’re asking for my prediction, I’d say we’ll see another strong start to the year. But if it’s on your agenda to sell or buy you should be talking to your agent now. 

There’s a large passive buyer audience to be captured with properties over December-January. I’ll say it again, we only know the market we’re in today. And it’s been a good market for many. 

Either way, I’m always available to discuss how timing affects a property sale. 

I hope you enjoy the read.

Matt Lancashire